Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a history of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.

The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Steven Fisher
Steven Fisher

A seasoned business consultant with over 15 years of experience in strategic planning and digital transformation.